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Uttlesford COVID

New Cases

Uttlesford Incidence

Relative no. of positive tests in Uttlesford, calibrated for test capacity and pillar variance.

Active Cases

East of England

Percentage infected in the East of England; Blue: All strains, Red: New (S-) Strain, Green: Other (S+) strains.

R Number

East of England R = 1.13

R(N501Y) = 1.15, R(Other) = 0.87; Estimated basic reproduction number (R) for the East of England.


Cambridge Admissions

Number of new COVID admissions to Cambridge hospitals

New Cases

UK Incidence

Rel no. of UK swab tests returning a positive result, calibrated for test capacity and pillar variance.

Active Cases

UK Infection Survey

Estimated no. of infected in England (blue) and UK (black), with old (green) & new (red) strains

R Number

England RAll = 1.14

R(N501Y) = 1.15, R(Other) = 1.09; Estimated basic reproduction number (R) for England.


UK Hospital Admissions

Number of people newly admitted to UK hospitals with COVID

Trends Over Time

Synopsis 22nd January 2021:

  • New Cases: The reported number of new positive coronavirus tests in Uttlesford has fallen dramatically since they peaked on 3rd January 2021. On the 16th January 2021 the number of new positive tests in Uttlesford had fallen to 26%* of their January peak. This is a greater reduction than we see nationally - since peaking on the 5th January, the number of positive UK daily swab tests had fallen to 58%* of their peak by the same date.

    It is evident from the heat map plot on the government web site (see: Uttlesford Heatmap), that the majority of positive tests in the last few weeks in Uttlesford, have been for those the age ranges 10 – 74 and 80+, with much fewer cases reported for 0-9 and 75-79.

    *It is important to note, that the swab test data here is calibrated to take into account the change in the number of tests carried out and pillar variance. For more detail see analysis and discussion regarding swab test data.

  • Number of Infectious: The coronavirus prevalence (the number or percentage of people who currently have coronavirus), based on data from ONS Infection Survey, for the East of England had fallen to 1.22% on 16th January 2021, from its 2.5% peak on the 30th December 2020. The new UK N501Y(S-) prevalence has fallen from 1.77% to 0.70%, and 'Other Strains (S+)' prevalence has fallen from 0.73% to 0.52%.

  • Reproduction Number (R): The seven day average R number fell below R = 1 in the East of England on the 3rd January, meaning that the epidemic in this region is shrinking exponentially. The value in the East of England was around 0.7 on the 16th January, which is lower than England’s (0.9) for the same date.

  • Hospitals: New admissions to Cambridge hospitals peaked on 5th January 2021, with a seven day average of 25 people. There has been a general downward trend since this date, with the current level of new admissions around 22. Nationally, the picture is quite similar, with a seven day average peak of 4220 on 9th January 2021, which had fallen to 3960 on the 16th January.

  • Mortality: Deaths from COVID in Uttlesford are too low to accurately draw time trend conclusions. Figures for deaths from coronavirus follow new hospital admissions, with a delay of around 2 weeks. This means the changes observed in daily deaths are seen, albeit on a much reduced scale, around 2 weeks after the changes in hospital admissions. This means that we should start to see the number of new deaths from COVID start to reduce nationally very soon.

    The bad news with reduction in the numbers dying from COVID, is that after the April 2020 peak, it took around three months for the number of new deaths to fall to a minimum, though deaths had reduced by 63% by the end of the first month, and by 90% by the end of the second month.


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